"Any crisis opens up new opportunities. You just need to take advantage of them," believes academician of the NAS of Ukraine Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, member of the Presidium of the NAS of Ukraine. Is it realistically possible to bring Ukrainian refugees back home? What hinders and what facilitates this process? How to encourage Ukrainians to have more children? Is it possible to reduce poverty while the war continues? Is it correct to forecast the demographic situation in Ukraine for years and decades ahead now? The scientist explained all this in an interview with the Ukrainian BBC service.
How to win the fight for Ukrainian emigrants?
"...we need to count on the fact that [our] people here, in their homeland, will have it better than there. Again, I am not talking about economic conditions, not only about them and not even so much about them. It is difficult for us to compete, say, with the wages people receive in Germany, the Netherlands, or Britain. But we have other trump cards. Here is their homeland, here is the familiar social climate for them. Here they have an appropriate social status, which they mostly do not have in the countries of emigration. And this must also be taken into account.
Undoubtedly, we cannot even dream of returning everyone. I will be happy if we return 50%, and 60% would be pure happiness for me. I think we can count on a third, based on the fact that it was approximately the same in all Balkan countries after the Balkan wars. This is the example closest to us territorially, mentally, and chronologically. <…>
We need to maintain connections with people. I keep saying that we must do this. Every employer who wants migrants who left to return to him must maintain contact with them. There is nothing difficult about it. You can write a postcard or a message. You can contact a person on social networks. The same should be done in schools and so on if we want to succeed. But I would not say that special state programs are needed for this. <…>
We also have another risk. After the cancellation of martial law, we may get a second wave of emigration of men who will go abroad to their wives. This cannot be neglected. If we do not return women, men will leave. So here we need to try to bring back as many people from abroad as possible, in particular to reduce the new outflow from here. If there is well-paid work, if bombings, power outages, heating, and water cutoffs stop, the desire to leave will be less. By the way, I do not see spikes in emigration due to blackouts. Believe me, I follow this very closely. The majority of those who left did so in the first months of the 2022 war. Agree that it was very scary in March then. <…>
In general, the sense of Ukrainian identity among our people is very strong. I will never forget how 200,000 men returned to Ukraine in the first two weeks after the war. They already knew they would not be able to leave. Mostly these were people under 60 years old.
Can we count on this? When I think about the cons of returning to Ukraine – first, it is undoubtedly danger. People are afraid either of today's bombings or that new outbreaks of aggression are inevitable. This is the first and most obvious.
Secondly, many simply have nowhere to return to. Housing is destroyed or the whole city is destroyed. Returning to an unknown place is scary. If people have a business and work, if they have property in Ukraine – the chances they will return are higher.
Thirdly, a controversial attitude is being "fueled" between those who are here, in Ukraine, and those who live abroad. <…> This is, as they say now, IPSO, created consciously and purposefully. One must not succumb to this."
How to stimulate birth rates?
"...the war harms not only and not so much the present but also the future. In 2023, very few children were born. This means that in 30 years, say (most likely by then the mother's age at childbirth will increase), there will be a new dip. How else? If there are few children, they will not be able to give birth to many. <…>
[Financial aid at childbirth] works, but not as much as we would like. Everyone would like: pay 100,000 – and maternity hospitals will be bursting. But it does not happen like that. And it should not be like that, by the way. Besides everything else, I would say that aid at childbirth affects not so much the birth rate as the poverty level of families with small children. <…> A complex approach can work. There is no single measure that will solve everything. Aid must definitely be paid because if a family is struggling, if it knows in advance that having a second child almost guarantees poverty – they will think about whether to have children or not. They will have one child because biological needs exist in every person, every couple. But they will think about the second child.
Secondly, developing preschool institutions will be beneficial. Because now it is extremely difficult – it is practically impossible to place a child in a preschool institution up to three years old. There are almost no state or communal ones left, and private ones exist but are very expensive. And if a mother has to pay more than she earns – well, you understand what the decision will be.
Thirdly, flexible schedules should be developed. For example, so that a woman can work at a convenient time for her. Not necessarily from 9 to 6, but say two hours in the morning and three hours in the evening – and she already has half a position. By the way, the COVID epidemic taught us a lot in this regard. We may now more easily apply remote work.
And fourthly, I think the household services sector should be developed. If a family is freed from household needs, it will pay more attention to the child.
And most importantly – the importance of this must be promoted. By the way, someone wrote to me on social networks asking: why don’t we show videos where a family is happy because they have small children? It is true, happiness. And this must be formed from an early age.
Conditions are needed, but consciousness is the main thing. Because if a family wants to have three children – maybe they will not have three – but there is a chance for the second. And if a family is oriented from the start to one child, then at best, there will be one child."
How to overcome poverty and respond to challenges related to population aging?
"The level of aging reflects the low birth rate. This is a pan-European and, I would say, global problem. <…> A high level of population aging is not just a series of problems but changed living conditions. <…> The economy, social, and household spheres must be adapted to the new demands of the population. Many older people means different needs for medical care. I am not saying bigger. Not just bigger – different. This means there are needs for organizing leisure for older people. Now we can hardly offer anything to our older persons. <…>
And how to fight poverty? How can you fight it when there is no possibility to grow the economy? Well, there is none, really none. I do not see a collapse because of this. I just don’t see it. Yes, the situation is very unpleasant. Yes, the trend is unpleasant. There is no doubt about that. But these are the realities of war. We just need to help people more. And this is not necessarily purely financial help. It can be help with employment. It can be help with raising children. It may be opening extended day groups in schools. Because if there are constant anxieties, if a child does not attend school or studies remotely, how can a mother work? She can’t."