Why is the climate on our planet changing and is it possible to reverse meteorological history now? How does the Russian-Ukrainian war affect the climate? What opportunities does climate change open up, for example, for agriculture? And what challenges will farmers (and not only them) have to face in the near future? All this was explained by in an interview with the online publication "Glavcom" by the head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the NAS of Ukraine, Candidate of Geographical Sciences Vira Balabukh.
About the causes and consequences of climate change:
“…the climatic winter, although not long, has been present in recent years. But the fact that it is shortening year by year is indeed a consequence of the global climate changes observed on our planet. <…>
Air circulation and astronomical factors also play a role. For example, we are currently at the peak of solar activity. Solar activity is a set of physical changes occurring on the Sun, including solar flares, etc. This set is cyclical, and during the cycle, solar activity rises and falls. We are currently in the 25th cycle, whose peak we passed at the end of last year – during such periods, the planet is under the most powerful influence of solar radiation. <…> In years of solar activity, the air temperature on Earth is always somewhat higher. <…>
The problem of our time is that, firstly, humans have actively started influencing weather changes, and secondly, these changes caused by anthropogenic factors are happening too quickly. Whereas significant climate changes used to occur over millennia, now one generation is enough for them to become noticeable. We (those living now) can testify that the current winter is no longer like it was 20 or 30 years ago. And this is precisely due to human activity. Natural factors change the temperature within one-tenth of a degree, while the anthropogenic factor provokes a change in air temperature by one and a half degrees, which is an order of magnitude more. <…>
…as a result of the war, greenhouse gas emissions… are increasing. In two years of Russia’s full-scale war [against Ukraine], the atmosphere has additionally received 180 million tons of carbon. Malta produces such an amount of emissions in 80 years! This is how the greenhouse effect is intensified. <…>
Previously, we thought we could "roll back" the situation. But the COVID epidemic, when a number of enterprises – in China, for example – were idle and greenhouse gas emissions did not occur, showed that the situation does not improve. So now the maximum we can do is to fix the status quo. Humanity will no longer be able to reverse meteorological history.
Because 95% of all the energy our planet receives is absorbed by the oceans. Currently, the oceans are warmed to a depth of two kilometers or more. In 2024, the World Ocean accumulated 140 times more heat than the entire planet's energy network produced during 2023. This is an enormous heat reserve. It is a giant kettle under which we can turn off the fire, but it will not cool down immediately.
And even if we stop tormenting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases now, it will take a very long time for the air temperature to return to previous levels. We heated it quickly, but unfortunately, it will cool down slowly. These are very inertial processes. But this does not mean that we should do nothing. If we continue to heat the planet, it will simply disappear…”.
About the flip side – a window of opportunities:
“But, despite everything, I will tell you one paradoxical thing: climate change is not only negative challenges, it also opens new opportunities for us.
Firstly, abnormally warm winters mean significantly less resources spent on heating, and therefore, we save electricity, which for Ukraine in wartime and under enemy strikes on our infrastructure is simply a gift.
Secondly, without snowfall, roads and transport suffer less damage.
Thirdly, in such warm weather as now, construction or other types of economic activity, which winter traditionally paused, can be carried out. In particular, the extension of the vegetative period in plants allows Ukraine to grow a third crop. Our climatic zones are changing, and what we used to grow in the south can now be grown in the north – including corn and sunflower.
Some scientists now call our Polissya “the new oil-grain belt of Ukraine” because there is now enough warmth and moisture, whereas in the south moisture is already lacking.
…there are positive effects from the increased concentration of greenhouse gases, specifically from the increased concentration of carbon dioxide, and this is the fourth point. Because carbon dioxide enhances photosynthesis processes, and plants accumulate more green mass. <…>
But there is one nuance… Heat alone is not enough to grow certain crops. Moisture is also needed. And we are gradually creating a moisture deficit because there is no snow, and droughts are becoming more frequent. Last year we had quite a dry period, which affects yields and ultimately food security. <…>
[Additionally] We [in Ukraine] are completely losing small rivers, and large ones are experiencing periods of “low water.” We are also losing wetlands that used to feed the rivers. Plus, as mentioned, we do not have snow cover, which also saturated water bodies. And this is a big problem for us because we are observing not only atmospheric but also hydrological drought. The level of groundwater is decreasing, water in wells is disappearing. And this concerns not only the southern but also the northern regions of Ukraine, even Polissya, which until recently was a zone with excess moisture. <…>
[To compensate for precipitation deficit] Drip irrigation, of course. In this regard, we have much to learn from Israel. Israel is basically a desert, yet the country has become one of the key vegetable producers in the world. What prevents Ukraine from using the appropriate technologies? Especially since our climate is not as dire as Israel’s. There is another way – plant breeding, i.e., cultivating hybrids capable of withstanding dry climate conditions. Plus water saving and redistribution. There are many methods to combat drought, and all of them are available to us.”